网络时代的中国悲剧

大航海时代带来了殖民时代和贸易的繁荣，持续几个世纪的大航海运动，奠定了欧洲的繁荣，对整个世界的格局带来了久远与深刻的影响。在这个带来急剧变化和发展的时代，同时期世界的东方，中华帝国的明王朝，在初期也进行了一次史无前例的大航海运动，但历史放佛给我们开了一个巨大的玩笑，明王朝的航海运动刚刚开始，就戛然而止，整个中国马上开始了数百年的闭关锁国，接下里的清王朝也延续了闭关锁国的政策，造成整个中国社会错过了这个黄金时代，错过了殖民时代，错过了中国人扩展生命空间，错过了近代工业文明的启蒙和发展，造成整个中国社会落后于世界几个世纪，错过了重要的中国人参与近代文明的发展机遇。这是我们迄今为止仍然在耿耿于怀的事情。
在二次大战以后，全球的文明与技术在废墟里重建，天朝上国因朝鲜战争以及政治取向和意识形态等原因，再次和慈禧太后时代一样向全世界进行了一场战争，稍后因为类似的原因，变相的闭关锁国，错过了一场重要的全球化文明与工业发展的机会。导致在民国时期已经在某些领域有所发展的东西，全面倒退。在文化上，在科技上，在政治与思想上，走到了另外一条路上。粗过了又一个与世界同步发展的机遇，在社会形态和科学技术方面，在思想领域，中国又一次落后于世界的步伐。导致在上个世纪八十年代改革开放，试图追赶上世界大流，和世界获得同步发展的机会。这是一个好事。但错过了机遇之后还想发展，没有那么简单的过程，这世界上没有那么多捷径。在几十年的时间里，仍然要付出别人几百年的付出的代价。带来了中国从上个世纪到本世纪这几十年的各种社会问题。
在现在，在网络大发展的时代，天朝上国仍然阴差阳错的采用了闭关锁国的政策，用一个超级防火墙生生的把中国和世界隔离开，整个中国的网络变成了一个超级局域网。前两天看到李开复的消息说Github居然也被屏蔽，联想到之前的sourceforge也被屏蔽过，连技术开发者这样毫无意识形态的网站都被屏蔽在外，再看看我们无法访问的那些网站列表，一种悲剧感突如其来。中国也许在大网络时代，也会错过与世界的同步发展和进化，无法参与到全球的网络大家庭里来。在可预见的将来，网络世界也将会被外国的力量所统治，中国人的在网络上仍然毫无生存空间。当你把世界关到门外的时候，世界也将把你排除在外。
互联网络正以人们难以想象的方式狂野的大发展，整个社会正在以狂奔的方式走入信息时代，google公司每天处理的数据超过24Pb，整个数字是图书管理纸质图书的上千倍。在2007年，仍然还有接近10%的信息储存在报纸和书籍这样的媒体上，而到了2013年，按照美国人的统计，世界上存储的数据高达1.2Zb，这里面只有2%的信息是存储在纸质的媒体上。网络将主导未来人类的生活，这是完全可以预料的事情。从上个世纪九十年代开始到现在，短短的二十多年里，大的网络公司和信息技术公司已经逐步占领在网络世界的领地，这是一个新的网络殖民时代的开始，也是大航海时代的一个翻版。在网络和信息的各个领域，都有巨无霸公司占据了最高端和最大的位置，占据了最有分量的话语权。看看微软、Intel、苹果、facebook、twitter、IBM、DELL、亚马逊、oracle、SAP、Adobe这样全球性的大公司，再看看操作系统、通信、手机、桌面应用、图片处理等各个领域的主导性公司，就可以知道，蛋糕已经基本被瓜分完了，其它的小公司在这些巨人面前，只有瑟瑟发抖的份。
我们本来以为未来的大航天时代，才是全球第二次划分势力范围的时间，在大航天时代占据足够的位置，才能保证自己在全球范围内的话语权和地盘。但我们错了，大航天时代还遥遥无期的时候，大网络时代已经到来了。影响以后数十年数百年的东西，在大网络时代就已经开始划分。从现在的情况来看，中国没有一家公司能在未来的网络世界里占有一席之地，中国网络和信息企业，不管是新浪还是腾讯，不管是百度还是淘宝，不管是华为还是联想，或者别的什么执中国业界牛耳的企业，都还不够资格划分网络领域的势力范围，只是在自己的小圈子里自得其乐而已。世界没有它们，一样的可以高速发展，离开了世界，这些公司就什么都不是。它们无一例外的都没有足够的网络世界话语权和实力，不是外界必不可少的东西，对网络世界的制约能力基本为0，对网络世界的发展基本没有主导能力，也基本没有对网络的发展作出过原创性的贡献。理想总是很丰满，现实总是很骨感。中国到现在为止，基本没有全球性影响力的公司，在可预见的将来，也很难产生和发展出这样能力和性质的公司。在这个情况下，将来的中国人，仍然是网络时代的被殖民者，居于从属的地位，被支配与被掠夺的悲剧将不可避免的会发生。这是一个悲剧。
是中国屏蔽世界，还是世界放弃中国，已经变得不再重要了。重要的是，我们在GDP高居全球前列的情况下，仍然是一个第三世界国家，仍然被排除在主流世界之外。在这个情况下，参与全球发展的中国公司，将因为国家的原因或者无所谓的一些政治原因和非主流的价值观与意识形态的原因，受到多重的困境。大部分中国公司，将会被排除在主流技术体系之外。最近的华为公司和三一重工等在美国发生的问题，已经初见端倪。2011年2月，华为收购3Leaf的举措被美国外商投资委员会否决。当月，华为副董事长胡侯崑发表公开信，希望美国公开调查华为公司，以澄清长期存在的有关华为可能威胁美国国家安全的指责。美国国会认为华为会威胁美国国家通信安全。后来是怎么解决问题的，已经不再重要了，重要的是，为什么中国没有说美国的公司会威胁中国的国家安全，而美国会因为这个原因对中国公司展开这么多阻扰。更重要的是，为什么美国不说欧洲和日本、印度的公司威胁美国安全，而面对中国公司在美国的发展，就搞出了这么多事情。这个问题上面，仅仅谈商业利益显然是不够的。无独有偶，2012年9月28日，美国总统奥巴马以威胁美国国家安全为由，签发行政命令，禁止三一集团关联公司罗尔斯在美国俄勒冈州一军事基地附近兴建4座风力发电厂。这就很明显了，中国公司不被认可。仅仅是不认可中国公司吗？也许还要加上很多背景和涵义，或许不认可中国和不认可中国人更加现实一点。
在中国还与国际主流价值观有很远的距离的时候，在中国社会还没有融入全球体系的时候，中国公司在海外的发展，是很难获得认可的。就像联想那样，连名字都不被认可的情况还会有很多。在这样的环境下，中国公司要产生世界性影响力的大公司，要产生出微软、苹果这样的巨无霸公司，是何其艰难。

大航海时代带来了殖民时代和贸易的繁荣，持续几个世纪的大航海运动，奠定了欧洲的繁荣，对整个世界的格局带来了久远与深刻的影响。

大航海时代800

在这个带来急剧变化和发展的时代，同时期世界的东方，中华帝国的明王朝，在初期也进行了一次史无前例的大航海运动，但历史仿佛给我们开了一个巨大的玩笑，明王朝的航海运动刚刚开始，就戛然而止，整个中国马上就开始了数百年的闭关锁国。郑和下西洋800

接下来的清王朝也延续了闭关锁国的政策，造成整个中国社会错过了这个黄金时代，错过了殖民时代，错过了中国人扩展生命空间的时代，错过了近代工业文明的启蒙和发展，造成整个中国社会落后于世界几个世纪，错过了重要的中国人参与近代文明的发展机遇。这是我们迄今为止仍然在耿耿于怀的事情。

在二次大战以后，全球的文明与技术在废墟里重建，天朝上国因朝鲜战争以及政治取向和意识形态等原因，再次和慈禧太后时代一样向全世界进行了一场战争，稍后因为类似的原因，变相的闭关锁国，错过了一场重要的全球化文明与工业发展的机会。朝鲜战争800

导致在民国时期已经在某些领域有所发展的东西，全面倒退。在文化上，在科技上，在政治与思想上，走到了另外一条路上。错过了又一个与世界同步发展的机遇，在社会形态和科学技术方面，在思想领域，中国又一次落后于世界的步伐。导致在上个世纪八十年代改革开放，试图追赶上世界大流，和世界获得同步发展的机会。这是一个好事，但错过了机遇之后还想发展，没有那么简单的过程，这世界上没有那么多捷径。在几十年的时间里，仍然要付出别人几百年的付出的代价。带来了中国从上个世纪到本世纪这几十年的各种社会问题。

在现在，在网络大发展的时代，天朝上国仍然阴差阳错的采用了闭关锁国的政策，用一个超级防火墙生生的把中国和世界隔离开，整个中国的网络变成了一个超级局域网。chinternet

前两天看到李开复的消息说Github居然也被屏蔽，联想到之前的sourceforge也被屏蔽过，连技术开发者这样毫无意识形态的网站都被屏蔽在外，再看看我们无法访问的那些网站列表，一种悲剧感突如其来。中国也许在大网络时代，也会错过与世界的同步发展和进化，无法参与到全球的网络大家庭里来。在可预见的将来，网络世界也将会被外国的力量所统治，中国人的在网络上仍然毫无生存空间。当你把世界关到门外的时候，世界也将把你排除在外。

互联网络正以人们难以想象的方式狂野的大发展，整个社会正在以狂奔的方式走入信息时代，google公司每天处理的数据超过24Pb，这个数字是美国国家图书馆纸质图书的上千倍。大数据800在2007年，仍然还有接近10%的信息储存在报纸和书籍这样的媒体上，而到了2013年，按照美国人的统计，世界上存储的数据高达1.2Zb，这里面只有2%的信息是存储在纸质的媒体上。网络将主导未来人类的生活，这是完全可以预料的事情。从上个世纪九十年代开始到现在，短短的二十多年里，大的网络公司和信息技术公司已经逐步占领在网络世界的领地，这是一个新的网络殖民时代的开始，也是大航海时代的一个翻版。信息时代2-800在网络和信息的各个领域，都有巨无霸公司占据了最高端和最大的位置，占据了最有分量的话语权。看看微软、Intel、苹果、facebook、twitter、IBM、DELL、亚马逊、oracle、SAP、Adobe这样全球性的大公司，再看看操作系统、通信、手机、桌面应用、图片处理等各个领域的主导性公司，就可以知道，蛋糕已经基本被瓜分完了，其它的小公司在这些巨人面前，只有瑟瑟发抖的份。

我们本来以为未来的大航天时代，才是全球第二次划分势力范围的时间，在大航天时代占据足够的位置，才能保证自己在全球范围内的话语权和地盘。但我们错了，在大航天时代还遥遥无期的时候，大网络时代已经到来了。影响以后数十年数百年的东西，在大网络时代就已经开始划分。从现在的情况来看，中国还没有一家公司能在未来的网络世界里占有一席之地，中国网络和信息企业，不管是新浪还是腾讯，不管是百度还是淘宝，不管是华为还是联想，或者别的什么执中国业界牛耳的企业，都还不够资格划分网络领域的势力范围，只是在自己的小圈子里自得其乐而已。世界没有它们，一样的可以高速发展，离开了世界，这些公司就什么都不是。它们无一例外的都没有足够的网络世界话语权和实力，不是外界必不可少的东西，对网络世界的制约能力基本为0，对网络世界的发展基本没有主导能力，也基本没有对网络的发展作出过原创性的贡献。理想总是很丰满，现实总是很骨感。中国到现在为止，基本没有全球性影响力的公司，在可预见的将来，也很难产生和发展出这样能力和性质的公司。在这个情况下，将来的中国人，仍然是网络时代的被殖民者，居于从属的地位，被支配与被掠夺的悲剧将不可避免的会发生。这是一个悲剧。

是中国屏蔽世界，还是世界放弃中国，已经变得不再重要了。重要的是，我们在GDP高居全球前列的情况下，仍然是一个第三世界国家，仍然被排除在主流世界之外。在这个情况下，参与全球发展的中国公司，将因为国家的原因或者无所谓的一些政治原因和非主流的价值观与意识形态的原因，受到多重的困境。大部分中国公司，将会被排除在主流技术体系之外。最近的华为公司和三一重工等在美国发生的问题，已经初见端倪。华为

2011年2月，华为收购3Leaf的举措被美国外商投资委员会否决。当月，华为副董事长胡侯崑发表公开信，希望美国公开调查华为公司，以澄清长期存在的有关华为可能威胁美国国家安全的指责。美国国会认为华为会威胁美国国家通信安全。后来是怎么解决问题的，已经不再重要了，重要的是，为什么中国没有说美国的公司会威胁中国的国家安全，而美国会因为这个原因对中国公司展开这么多阻扰。更重要的是，为什么美国不说欧洲和日本、印度的公司威胁美国安全，而面对中国公司在美国的发展，就搞出了这么多事情。这个问题上面，仅仅谈商业利益显然是不够的。三一重工

无独有偶，2012年9月28日，美国总统奥巴马以威胁美国国家安全为由，签发行政命令，禁止三一集团关联公司罗尔斯在美国俄勒冈州一军事基地附近兴建4座风力发电厂。三一重工1

这就很明显了，中国公司不被认可。仅仅是不认可中国公司吗？也许还要加上很多背景和涵义，或许不认可中国和不认可中国人更加现实一点。

在中国还与国际主流价值观有很远的距离的时候，在中国社会还没有融入全球体系的时候，中国公司在海外的发展，是很难获得认可的。就像联想那样，连名字都不被认可的情况还会有很多。在这样的环境下，中国公司要产生世界性影响力的大公司，要产生出微软、苹果这样的巨无霸公司，是何其艰难。

三更天 发表于 2013-1-29 447 views | 类别: 三更夜话
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  1. #1苏州旅行社 @ 2013-1-29 12:10 回复

    持续关注此次的教学过程，也欢迎博主及时分享.

  2. #2Nana @ 2013-2-1 12:27 回复

    前两天想说，这个背景看着太累了。
    你这个问题我也想到过，那天真想说怎么样可以置顶你这个文章，这个问题提的非常又意思。

    现在是国际社会在被迫接受现况的中国，包括它所有的一切，但要获得主流价值观的认可，中国还有相当的路要走。

    这个现状你分析的很有道理。你的大航海时代和大网络时代的提法令人耳目一新。

    • #3三更天 @ 2013-2-1 12:55 回复

      我也是发现那个背景看着太累了，才换了一个背景。看图片还好点，看文字就太让人难受。这个模版应该还可以了吧？

      谢谢nana的支持，你的认可对我很重要，真的。

      年末了工作相对少一些，有时间写点东西。其实也是扯淡，什么都改变不了。

      置顶是什么意思？博客怎么置顶啊？

  3. #4bbb @ 2013-2-5 08:42 回复

    1.中国人的问题就是太希望别人认可了，没有自己的价值观，几千年十几亿人永远不变的共同梦想就是面子。
    2.什么大网络时代。楼主你太逗了。什么大航海大航天的都是泡沫。人类社会的真正进步只有通过收入更加公平的分配和实质性的技术进步实现。互联网这种技术进步和互联网公司的那些商业应用根本就是两回事。
    3.“或许不认可中国和不认可中国人更加现实一点。”别自作多情臭美了，谁跟你较劲啊，跟一堆就知道埋头生产工蚁较劲有意思吗？说白了，海外华人都知道：没人歧视你，您这样的亚洲人都不在歧视之列。
    4.所以啊，还是咱黄亚关起门来自己过吧，等白人资本主义世界把地球祸害到头了，大家一起完蛋。到时候，您什么大崛起啊大时代，还有啥意义吗？

    还大国崛起呢！你儿子的孙子还能不能活过世界末日都他妈难说！什么年代了，说来说去还是林则徐那一套，一点长进都没有。

    看点书吧，尤其是英文的，看看人家都在讨论些啥问题。

    • #5三更天 @ 2013-2-7 09:27 回复

      发微薄发习惯了吧，指点江山习惯了吧，不自以为是能死啊，想了半天，发现这句话作为回复最合适贴切。越看越像厨子的口吻，这货就喜欢给人开书单，还一脸语重心长的“多看点英文书，最好去外国住几年，你才会对世界有了解”。一贯的看着A说着B大家以为说的是C结果他说的是D还一路自得其乐的说到EFG上去，现在还加上了公知的语气。

      文科公知吧哥，还“人类社会的真正进步只有通过收入更加公平的分配和实质性的技术进步实现”。大航海时代那会儿殖民地政策可真够公平啊，尼玛卖鸦片给你来保持来出口贸易差，多公平啊。网络时代和互联网不是一码事好吗哥。大国崛起跟我一毛钱关系都没有。

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